In comparison to the same quarter last year, China’s economy expanded by a whopping 18.3 percent in the first quarter of 2021.
It’s the largest increase in the gross domestic product (GDP) since China began recording quarterly data in 1992.
However, the figures released on Friday fell short of forecasts, with economists polled by RushHourDaily expecting a 19 percent raise.
Compared to last year’s massive economic recession, they are also strongly weighted and less reflective of strong prosperity.
China’s economy shrank 6.8% in the first quarter of 2020 due to national lockdowns at the onset of the Covid-19 epidemic.
The National Bureau of Statistics of China, which released the first-quarter results, said, “The national economy made a strong start.”
“We must be conscious that the Covid-19 outbreak is already expanding worldwide, and the international environment is complicated by strong uncertainty and instabilities,” the statement continued.
Other primary figures published by China’s statistics department still point to a continued recovery, but they are unusually high instead of last year’s incredibly low figures.
Industrial production increased by 14.1 percent in March compared to the same month last year, while retail revenue increased by 34.2 percent.
Ironically, China’s economic boom comes when its leader grapples with the issue of climate change, which has been exacerbated by decades of economic development.
Historically, pollution from coal, gas, and oil combustion has almost entirely fueled the development.
China has stated that its emissions will be frozen by 2030 and fully eliminated by 2060.
However, President Xi is hearing from French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel that carbon will and should be frozen sooner, maybe by 2025.
In the so-called Belt and Road campaign, EU and US leaders ask China to stop financing new coal-fired power plants in developing countries.
They argue that if African countries take the polluting road of wealth paved by countries that made their fortunes from coal, the planet will suffer.
“Promisingly, the monthly indicators show that industrial development, demand, and investment all increased sequentially in March, following the weakness in the first two months,” said Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics.
However, as government fiscal and monetary assistance are reduced, some economists expect that many sectors will slow.
While the latest estimates indicate that China’s economic rebound is broad-based, Yue Su, the Economist Intelligence Unit’s principal economist for China, believes that some development and export output may have been “front-loaded” into the first quarter, implying slower growth ahead.
“Trade performance and domestic industrial activities for the rest of year might not be able to maintain such strong momentum, due to lack of measures to stimulate the domestic economy,” she said.
Nonetheless, the numbers show that China’s economy is still growing. By comparing the last quarter of 2018 to the last quarter of 2020, the Chinese economy expanded by just 0.6 percent.
After the pandemic, the economy has slowly improved, aided by stringent virus control policies and emergency sector relief.
Despite a disastrous start to the year, China was the only global economy to rise in 2020, but at its slowest pace in decades, with 2.3 percent growth.
China has set a 6% economic growth goal for 2021, despite abandoning its previous target last year.
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