The latest race for the 10 Downing Street between the former foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, and the current Foreign Secretary, Jeremy Hunt, is expected to be won by the former. Mr. Johnson, who’s the more likely candidate to fill the gap left by the outgoing Theresa May, has reiterated his stated position that he will pull his country out of the EU shackles, to bring the deal or no-deal Brexit to its logical conclusion.
The former London Mayor’s Euroskepticism that it will quit EU by October 31 deadline, deal or no-deal Brexit, seems an oversimplification of a highly complex matter. The EU red-tapism that has bound the UK from carrying out any viable withdrawal policy until now. Three years since the Brexit Referendum, the divorce plan is still as uncertain as it was on the day of the Referendum in 2016.
Amidst those uncertainties that have been the characteristic of Brexit, whether political or economic or even demographic, the only certainty has been the early twilight of the top leadership of Britain. Until now, two prime ministers have been sacrificed on the altar of Brexit. It is yet to see how the incoming PM, most probably Boris Johnson, survives the Brexit and its aftermath. And if he doesn’t turn out to be yet another “collateral damage” of Brexit, as the two of his predecessors, how would he steer the island nation through these crises that could follow once Brexit takes place.
For in a no-deal scenario, which Mr. Johnson is trivializing, for now, the UK would immediately leave the EU without any agreement about the divorce process; and, although the UK will leave the single market and Customs Union, it will have its repercussions for the seceding country. Although the UK would not be obliged to contribute 9bn pound a year into EU budget- besides avoiding the payment of 39 billion pounds that was agreed by Theresa May’s government in her Brexit deal- it will have to face unavoidable economic consequences at home.
Inevitably, no-deal Brexit could be more complicated for the UK than a Brexit with a deal. Firstly, the UK, in case it avoids the payments, could end up in the international tribunal. Besides, if no-deal Brexit happens, the cost of compensating the UK businesses will likely reach a staggering amount of 22bn pounds a year, according to a report published in Independent. This is far more than a one-time payment of 39bn pounds to the EU as the divorce settlement.
The Brexit scenario or crisis renders the UK in a curious situation where it wants to have a cake and eat it too. For it wants a divorce, and also wants on its terms. Boris Johnson who trivializes the after-effects of a no-deal Brexit perhaps seems more preoccupied with becoming the next resident of 10 Downing Street than pondering on the explosive potential that a no-deal Brexit could unleash once materialized.
For now, it seems that the UK has almost lost in the labyrinth that we know as the EU. It seems there is only an entrance into that labyrinth and no exit because the exit gate is nowhere to be found. At least the UK has been unable to find it in three years.
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