Fed poised to hike rates as markets anticipate inflation endgame

Fed poised to hike rates as markets anticipate inflation endgame

The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a quarter-point increase in interest rates on Wednesday, which would be the 11th hike in the past 12 policy meetings. This move is seen as the central bank’s final attempt to control inflation. The anticipated increase would bring the benchmark overnight interest rate to the range of 5.25% to 5.50%, the highest level since the 2007-2009 financial crisis and recession.

Despite concerns, there is little indication of an imminent economic collapse. In fact, the economy has proven to be more resilient to rising interest rates than expected, with ongoing growth and a low unemployment rate of 3.6%. The Fed will need to balance whether the economy is still too strong to maintain an elevated rate of inflation or if a process of “disinflation” is underway that will continue without further rate increases.

After a series of rapid rate hikes over the past year, the Fed is now taking a more data-driven approach to determine future policy decisions. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to emphasize this approach in a press conference following the announcement. The key question is whether the Fed will prioritize weaker-than-expected inflation or stronger-than-expected economic activity in shaping future policy.

At this week’s meeting, the Fed will not update its quarterly economic and interest rate projections. However, policymakers will have the opportunity to discuss quarterly bank survey data, which has gained importance since several regional bank collapses earlier this year. In June, policymakers projected that the Fed was nearing the end of its hiking cycle, with only one more quarter-point increase expected beyond the upcoming hike.

Recent data has lowered expectations for further rate hikes, as headline inflation has been weaker than expected and other economic indicators suggest a moderation in growth. U.S. consumers’ 12-month inflation expectations have also declined. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures price index, will be released on Friday, providing further insight into inflation trends.

While there has been a decline in inflation, it remains above the Fed’s target. Officials, including Powell, have stated that they will not change policy until sustained progress on inflation is achieved. The Fed will have a longer-than-usual gap between meetings before its next gathering in September, allowing for more data on jobs, inflation, and economic growth to accumulate.

In conclusion, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by a quarter-point, marking the 11th hike in the past 12 policy meetings. The economy has shown resilience to rising rates, but the Fed must balance the strength of the economy against the risk of inflation. The central bank is taking a data-driven approach to future policy decisions and will have a longer gap between meetings to assess economic indicators.

About News Team

Hi, I'm Alex Perez, an experienced writer with a focus on lifestyle and culture news. From food and fashion to travel and entertainment, I love exploring the latest trends and sharing my insights with readers. I also have a strong interest in world news and business, and enjoy covering breaking stories and events.

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