Kansas City outfielder Alex Gordon blasted the MLB’s 5,694th home run of 2017 Tuesday night, eclipsing the previous league-wide single-season homer record of 5,693 set in 2000.
“I don’t know what to make of it,” Royals Manager Ned Yost told reporters Tuesday. “There sure are a lot of home runs being hit.”
The Washington Post makes the case that the prevalence of long balls is evidence of a “tectonic shift” in the nature of the MLB game: the average hitter is cranking more home runs than ever before.
This year, the Post notes, 110 players—73.8 percent of the 149 hitters who have enough plate appearances to qualify for a batting title—have hit 20 or more home runs. One hundred eleven players did so in 2016, setting a league record. With six players sitting at 19 homers, 11 at 18, and 13 at 17 entering play Wednesday, 2017’s 20-homer club is likely to grow well beyond its 2016 size.
Thirty home runs, as the Post points out, might be the new 20. In 2014, 57 hitters had 20 or more home runs. This year, as many could hit thirty.
The league-wide home run rate has proven cyclical in the past. Fourteen years after that rate hit the aforementioned peak in 2000, it sunk to a 22-year low. So, some argue that the unprecedented preponderance of long balls represents the high point of a cycle that will modulate in coming years.
Runs per game are also moving cyclically. It hit a 36-year low in 2014 and has increased every year since.
Offensive stats as a whole are on the upswing. League-wide batting average is as high as it’s been since 2011. League-wide runs per game have risen in each of the last three seasons, after having fallen in the three prior ones.
Whether the recent preponderance of home runs is part of the general trend or representative of a lasting shift in the fabric of America’s 250-year-old pastime remains to be seen.
But, the Post contends that the style of play has changed in such a way that the recent emphasis on power is here to stay. Analytics have progressed to such a degree that the average hitter entering the league is well-acquainted with exit velocities and launch angles, and can harness that knowledge to slam balls out of the park.
Pitching styles have changed as well. Pitchers, especially relievers, increasingly rely on fastballs, which hitters generally either miss or hit a long way.
“The only way you’re doing damage against some of these [hard-throwers] is to keep aiming for the fences, keep going for the home run,” Washington Nationals pitcher Max Scherzer said in July, according to the Post.
“ …That’s why [hitters are] more willing to sell out for the home run, and they’re okay with their strikeouts,” he added.
The correlation between strikeouts and home runs, though, is not as strong as one might expect, at least on a league-wide level. In 2014, when homers were at a 22-year low, strikeouts per game reached an all-time high. In fact, the league-wide strikeout-per-game average has set a record in each of the last nine seasons, while per-game home runs have vacillated.
The game’s best power hitters, though, tend to strikeout more than the average player does. Three of the league’s top 10 home run hitters also rank in the top 10 in terms of strikeouts. The Yankees’ Aaron Judge ranks second in home runs and first in strikeouts. Khris Davis of the Oakland A’s ranks fourth in long balls and second in strikeouts. Joey Gallo of the Rangers is tied for fifth in home runs and for fourth in strikeouts.
Featured image via Wikimedia Commons
