Syria’s Idlib has become a battleground between Russia and Turkey. Although the two are not directly confronting in Syria’s Idlib, they are fighting via proxies. In Syria’s Idlib Russia is supporting the Syrian regime while Turkey is helping opposition forces. This article covers a detailed analysis of the current humanitarian crisis in Syria’s Idlib province. In the start of May 2019, the Syrian and Russian forces initiated a military campaign in Hama of Syria. This military operation was launched to capture the plains of Ghab. The Asad regime successfully took over control of 21 important areas. These areas also include two strategically important locations. This invasion was agreed by the Asad regime of Syria, Turkey, and Russia in Sochi. This agreement was aimed at defusing tensions in Idlib.
This military campaign was launched to pressurize Turkey. The Asad regime hopes that after being pressurized by this invasion, Turkey will implement the Sochi agreement. However, Russia and Syria are also not completely implementing the Sochi agreement. On the other hand, Turkey has decided to respond instead of silence. Clearly, Turkey wants to tell Russia and the Syrian regime that it (Turkey) cannot remain silent on invasion in Idlib.
The Sochi agreement includes the creation of demilitarization zone. This demilitarization zone will consist of about twenty kilometers. Turkish and Russian forces will jointly patrol in this area. And also an Iranian-Russian-Turkish coordination center will be established. This agreement also includes the opening of the M5 and M4 highways for free and effective trade. Despite having signed this the Syrian regime seems to violate the agreement.
Asad Government is taking steps which can harm the Sochi agreement in the future. The regime’s bombing on Idlib is aimed at provoking a war-like situation in the area. Forces of Bashar Al Asad are bombarding Idlib because Bashar wants to control the Idlib by force. In fact, Asad wants Syria in his full control as it was before 2011 spring.
At the start of 2019, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham chased Turkish backed Syrian opposition and about 3 million people were made hostages. These people were made hostages. Previously this group had close links with Al Qaeda. In Sochi agreement, it was decided that parties will completely call off their troops from the demilitarization zone. However, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham has expansionist agenda in Syria.
Turkey took an initiative of uniting the various opposition groups in Idlib. These groups were united under the National Liberation Front. However, this group seemed divided and weak against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. The Turkish backed militant group could not effectively respond against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
Russia wants joint Russian-Turkish patroling in the demilitarization zone. But Syrian opposition is against this patrolling. There are also possibilities that Russia can take advantage of joint patrolling to cross the border. Due to these strict apprehensions, the Russian dream of joint patrolling could not be fulfilled. Then Russia and Turkey decided for independent patroling in Idlib. However, these patrols were well coordinated to diffuse the escalation in Idlib. However, when Turks left the area the Syrian regime started bombing in the area.
Now the military operation in Ghab plains is fully backed by Russia and Iranian backed militias are not participating in this operation. The Syrian forces, backed by Russia, successfully captured some important areas. However, the advancement of Syrian forces was stopped when a Syrian opposition, backed by Turkey, united to counter them on the ground. Turkey is arming Syrian opposition with anti-tank guided missiles. These missiles are very successful in this 8 years old war of Syria.
After the clear and a solidified Turkish backing, The National Front for Liberation and Hayat Tahrir AL Sham are trying to defuse tensions in the area. With the Turkish backing, the Syrian opposition has successfully destroyed many tanks and armored vehicles of Asad’s forces. National Front for Liberation successfully captured many areas of Kafr Nabudah.
In the last weak of May 2019, Syrian forces, with the support of Russia, successfully recaptured Kafr Nabuqah. However, Syrian forces met fierce resistance from Syrian opposition forces in the area. In fact, it is named as a tactical withdrawal by Turkey. Turkey’s message to Russia is clear that Idlib can be a Redline.
Now if Russia and Turkey keep on struggling in Idlib the crisis will not be confined to Syria only. Currently, more than 220000 people have been displaced. UCHA of Syria reported that one refugee camp was also targeted in May.
Now, the United nation demanded Turkey and Russia to go for negotiations to defuse the war in the Syrian province of Idlib. Turkey and Russia need an urgent agreement to tensions in Syria. In a new agreement, subversive activities of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Syrian regime may be discussed. If an immediate rapprochement is not settled, the current crisis in Idlib can go beyond the Syrian borders and can affect the regional countries including Turkey, Iran, and Iraq.
