U.S. leading indicators point to recession starting soon

us.-leading-indicators-point-to-recession-starting-soon
U.S. leading indicators point to recession starting soon

The Leading Economic Index (LEI), an index that tracks turns in U.S. business cycles, experienced its 15th consecutive monthly decline in June. This decline was primarily driven by a weakening consumer outlook and an increase in unemployment claims. It is worth noting that this is the longest streak of decreases since the period leading up to the 2007-2009 recession.

According to The Conference Board, the LEI dropped by 0.7% in June to reach a level of 106.1. This follows a revised decrease of 0.6% in May. The decline in June was slightly higher than the median expectation of economists in a RushHourDaily poll, who predicted a 0.6% decrease.

Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at The Conference Board, stated that the data from June suggests a continued deceleration of economic activity in the coming months. The Conference Board maintains its forecast that the U.S. economy is likely to enter a recession from the current third quarter until the first quarter of 2024.

Zabinska-La Monica also highlighted several factors that are expected to further dampen economic growth, including elevated prices, tighter monetary policy, reduced access to credit, and decreased government spending.

The Conference Board emphasized that the contraction in the LEI is accelerating, with a 4.2% decline over the past six months compared to a 3.8% decline between June and December 2022.

In summary, the LEI continues to decline, indicating a prolonged period of economic downturn. The weakening consumer outlook, increased unemployment claims, and various other factors are contributing to this downward trend. The Conference Board anticipates a continued deceleration of economic activity in the coming months, with a recession forecasted until early 2024.

About News Team

Hi, I'm Alex Perez, an experienced writer with a focus on lifestyle and culture news. From food and fashion to travel and entertainment, I love exploring the latest trends and sharing my insights with readers. I also have a strong interest in world news and business, and enjoy covering breaking stories and events.

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