Two lightweight contenders will collide on Saturday, as Edson Barboza (17-4 MMA, 11-4 UFC) and Gilbert “El Nino” Melendez (22-5 MMA, 1-3 UFC) will meet at the co-main event of UFC on Fox 20.
Barboza’s UFC career has been successful in the long run but has hit some turbulence once reaching the lightweight division’s top-10. Still, he has held his own, and currently holds the No. 6-rank in the division. In his most recent outing, Barboza pulled off the biggest win of his career: a unanimous decision win over former lightweight champion Anthony Pettis. His losses have come to No. 3 contender Tony Ferguson, No. 10 contender Michael Johnson, former title challenger and No. 5 contender Donald Cerrone, and an upset defeat at the hands of Jamie Varner when Barboza was still a bit green.
Former UFC title challenger Melendez’s run with the Ultimate Fighting Championship has not gone as hoped, especially after an impressive 11-1 Strikeforce career in which he held the lightweight belt for a good portion of. His only UFC win to date is against Diego Sanchez, who is not the fighter he once was. Following that victory, he got a shot at ex-champ Pettis but was submitted in the second round. In his most recent fight, he lost a split decision to current lightweight champion Eddie Alvarez. Melendez has not fought in over a year following a failed drug test.
Barboza is known for his flashy striking and kick arsenal. He uses it to land over four significant strikes per minute. There’s some serious power in his strikes too, as 59 percent of his victories have come by KO/TKO. Barboza doesn’t attempt many takedowns, but he’s rock solid when it comes to defending them (85 percent defense rate).
Barboza’s takedown defense might be the key to his victory in this bout. Melendez can wrestle, averaging nearly two takedowns per fight. If Barboza can keep this fight off the mat, the stand-up would likely be his domain. Melendez is a good striker as well, as he lands 3.63 significant strikes per minute and is only hit by a shade over two per minute in return.
Still, Melendez has been slipping lately, and who knows how he’ll look after failing a drug test following his last bout. Meanwhile, Barboza is coming off the biggest win of his career. He should take this fight unless Melendez either looks really good off the layoff, or Barboza goes back to his inconsistency issues. Either way, expect a close stand-up fight that Barboza should edge if he can stop the takedown.
