European diplomats have informed Iran that they intend to maintain the European Union ballistic missile sanctions, which are set to expire in October under the defunct 2015 Iran nuclear deal. This decision could potentially lead to Iranian retaliation. The reasons cited for retaining the sanctions include Russia’s use of Iranian drones against Ukraine, the possibility of Iran transferring ballistic missiles to Russia, and the fact that Iran has violated the nuclear deal after the United States did so first.
By keeping the EU sanctions, Western countries aim to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them, despite the collapse of the 2015 deal. This agreement, which involved Iran, Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia, and the United States, limited Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for relief from economic sanctions.
Due to the withdrawal of the United States from the deal and the failure of President Joe Biden to revive it, Iran now has the capability to produce fissile material for a bomb in a significantly shorter time frame. U.S. estimates suggest that Iran could achieve this in approximately 12 days, compared to a year when the accord was in effect.
As a result of the deteriorating relations between Iran and the West, efforts have been made to de-escalate tensions and explore possibilities for reviving some nuclear limits. Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons, although the West perceives this as a threat to Israel and Gulf Arab oil exporters.
The retention of the EU sanctions has been communicated to Iran, and the Western diplomats are now considering the potential retaliatory steps that Iran might take. The EU sanctions are scheduled to expire on October 18, but the intention is to extend them. These sanctions include a call for Iran to refrain from developing ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear weapons, as well as restrictions on the purchase, sale, or transfer of drones and their components to Iran without prior authorization from the UN Security Council.
Iran has conducted ballistic missile tests and satellite launches in violation of the UN resolution. Concerns have also been raised about the growing defense relationship between Iran and Russia, particularly regarding the use of Iranian drones to strike Ukraine.
It remains unclear whether the E3 (Britain, France, and Germany) informed Iran of their intent to retain the EU sanctions during their recent meeting with Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator. The issue has not yet been discussed among all EU member states, although preparations are underway to lay the legal groundwork for the sanctions’ extension.
The British, French, and German foreign ministries have expressed concerns about Iran’s continued nuclear escalation. However, Iran remains defiant, stating that ongoing advancements will not be hindered by the maintenance of sanctions.
The 2015 nuclear agreement allows any party to trigger the “snapback” of all previously lifted sanctions. However, the E3 is reluctant to do so, as it would undermine the threat conveyed in a letter from their foreign ministers to Iran last year. Iran has enriched uranium to 60% purity, although it falls short of the 90% threshold considered weapons-grade.
If the EU decides to retain the sanctions, it would be a significant departure from the terms of the nuclear deal. This decision reflects the reality that the deal no longer exists in a practical form and demonstrates that European governments do not condone Iran’s behavior.
In conclusion, European diplomats have informed Iran of their intention to maintain the EU ballistic missile sanctions. This decision is driven by concerns over Iran’s actions, including its relationship with Russia and its violation of the nuclear deal. The retention of sanctions aims to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them.
