A new USA TODAY/Rock the Vote Poll shows that Donald Trump is losing the youth vote to Hillary Clinton in record numbers, with 56% of voters under 35 supporting Clinton and only 20% supporting Trump. 15% say that they will not vote and 9% say that they are unsure. USA Today said that Trump is doing even worse with young voters than Richard Nixon, who received only 32% of the youth vote in 1972, “an era of youthful protests against the Vietnam War.”
The results are similar in a four-way race including Jill Stein and Gary Johnson. Clinton also has a massive lead over Trump among former Bernie Sanders supporters, though, as USA Today puts it: “she has failed so far to generate the levels of enthusiasm Sanders did — and the high turn-out that can signal.”
“The enthusiasm level of Millennials has dipped since the poll in March, when Sanders was still a candidate, raising questions about turnout among these voters. The percentage most likely to vote has dropped to 72% from 76% in March; those seen as not very likely to vote has ticked up slightly to 9% from 7%.”
A recent GenForward survey also showed low support for Trump among adults ages 18-30, with only white youth supporting Trump over Clinton.
However, GenForward’s polling occurred during the Republican National Convention and before the Democratic National Convention, meaning that the results reflect Donald Trump’s convention bump, which was short-lived and quickly overshadowed by Hillary Clinton’s lasting convention bump, which has put her ahead of Trump in almost every major poll since the conventions. But even before the DNC, Clinton had a huge lead over Trump in terms of favorability, except with white voters ages 18-30.
USA Today/Rock the Vote’s survey confirms that the DNC had a huge effect on voters under 35, with 72% saying that they paid attention to the conventions. 39% said that the DNC made Hillary Clinton seem more presidential, and 35% said that it made her seem more human. 31% said that she seemed more trustworthy, but an equal percentage said that she seemed less trustworthy. GenForward found that 54% of white voters ages 18-30 believe she “intentionally broke the law with her use of a private email address as Secretary of State,” compared to 32% of Latinx youth, 29% of Asian-American youth, and 21% of African-American youth.
USA Today/Rock the Vote found that the RNC, on the other hand, made 52% of voters under 35 see Donald Trump as less credible, 51% as less trustworthy, 50% as less trustworthy, 46% as less human, and 40% as less accessible.
54% of Trump voters said that one of the main reasons they are supporting Trump is to keep Clinton out of the White House, versus 51% of Clinton voters. However, 57% of Clinton voters also say that she has “the right experience to lead,” while only 22% of Trump voters say that about their candidate.
USA Today/Rock the Vote also found that “half of those under 35 say they identify with or lean toward the Democrats; just 20% identify with or lean toward the Republicans. Seventeen percent are independents, and another 12% either identify with another party or don’t know.”
GenForward’s survey found that Democrats have significantly higher favorability ratings with young minority voters, while young white voters dislike the Republican Party and Democratic Party at about the same rate. Young voters across all races/ethnicities believe that Democrats care more about them than Republicans.
70% of voters under 35 say that sexism plays a role in the dislike of Hillary Clinton. USA Today noted:
“Clinton does a bit better among young men (58%-22%) than she does among young women (53%-17%). Women are somewhat more likely to say they won’t vote for either, 17% compared with 13% for men.
Interestingly, young men are more likely to say sexism is a major reason for hostility toward Clinton: 42% of men compared to 37% of women. Women are a bit more likely to say sexism plays no role at all, 30% compared with 28%.”
Both surveys found that young voters are concerned about both police violence against black people and violence against police. USA Today/Rock the Vote found that 72% of voters under 35 believe that police violence against black people is a major problem, while 77% “agree that they are concerned for the safety of police officers.” The GenForward survey found similar results for voters ages 18-30:
GenForward also found that the majority of youth voters prioritize gun control over gun rights.
The majority of young voters also identify the Pulse massacre as an anti-LGBTQ hate crime.
