China is ramping up its production of a new generation of nuclear-armed submarines, sparking an intensifying submarine arms race. These submarines are expected to pose a challenge to the United States and its allies in terms of tracking them. Analysts and defense attaches in the region have noted mounting evidence that China’s Type 096 ballistic missile submarine will be operational before the end of the decade. The submarines’ increased quietness, aided by Russian technology, will make them far more difficult to detect. This conclusion is supported by multiple analysts and military attaches in Asia.
Retired submariner and naval technical intelligence analyst Christopher Carlson, one of the researchers, described the Type 096 submarines as a “nightmare” that will be extremely hard to detect. The discreet effort to track China’s nuclear-powered and -armed ballistic missile submarines, known as SSBNs, is a key driver behind increased deployments and contingency planning by the U.S. Navy and other militaries in the Indo-Pacific region. This effort is expected to intensify once the Type 096 submarines enter service.
China’s navy is already conducting fully armed nuclear deterrence patrols with its older Type 094 submarines in the South China Sea. However, these submarines are considered relatively noisy, which is a significant disadvantage for military submarines. The Type 096 submarines, on the other hand, will compare to state-of-the-art Russian submarines in terms of stealth, sensors, and weapons. This leap in capabilities will have profound implications for the United States and its Indo-Pacific allies.
Based on Chinese military journals, internal speeches by senior People’s Liberation Army (PLA) officers, and patent data, research has traced the PLA navy’s nuclear submarine development over more than 50 years. Satellite imagery taken at China’s new Huludao shipyard shows the construction of a large submarine, indicating that the boats will be operational by 2030, as stated in the Pentagon’s annual reports on China’s military. The research also highlights potential breakthroughs in pump-jet propulsion and internal quieting devices, based on imitative innovation of Russian technology.
The prospect of advanced SSBNs will significantly complicate the ongoing subsurface surveillance battle. Tracking Chinese submarines has become an international effort, with countries like Japan and India assisting the United States, Australia, and Britain. Anti-submarine warfare drills and deployments of sub-hunting aircraft are increasing in Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean. The United States is also overhauling its top-secret undersea surveillance network to counter China’s growing presence.
The AUKUS deal between Australia, Britain, and the U.S. is driven, in part, by the prospect of quieter Chinese SSBNs. This deal will lead to increased deployments of British and U.S. attack submarines to Western Australia. Australia also plans to launch its first nuclear-powered attack submarines with British technology by the 2030s. While China may reach technological parity with its submarine force, it will need intensive training over the next decade to match AUKUS capabilities.
There is speculation that Chinese engineers have made the breakthroughs described in the research. While China likely obtained some key Russian technology in the 1990s, there is no known sharing agreement between Beijing and Moscow outside of a 2010 nuclear reactor agreement. It is possible that China has made progress through adaptations of Russian designs and other sources, including espionage. However, it is unlikely that China has the newest-generation Russian systems. Moscow-based Chinese military scholar Vasily Kashin emphasized that China is not an adversary of Russia in the naval field but is creating problems for the United States.
In conclusion, China’s production of a new generation of nuclear-armed submarines, particularly the Type 096 submarines, is fueling an intensifying submarine arms race. These submarines are expected to be more difficult to track due to their increased quietness. The development of advanced SSBNs by China has significant implications for the United States and its Indo-Pacific allies. The ongoing efforts to track Chinese submarines involve international cooperation and increased deployments of sub-hunting assets. The AUKUS deal and the overhaul of the U.S. undersea surveillance network are responses to the prospect of quieter Chinese SSBNs. While China may reach technological parity, it will require extensive training to match the capabilities of AUKUS. There is speculation about the sources of China’s technological advancements, but it is unlikely that they possess the newest-generation Russian systems.
