JOHNSON’S BREXIT – A ROADWAY TO NO-DEAL BREXIT OR ANOTHER REFERENDUM

No-deal Brexit
Photo via Free Images at Flickr.com

Boris Johnson has succeeded in signing a Brexit deal with the European Union. This deal was signed at the expense of unionist political leaders of Northern Ireland. This deal is a big victory for UK’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson. However, there is still uncertainty whether he will get this passed in the UK’s parliament or not. This article explains whether it is an effective Brexit deal or a roadway to no-deal Brexit. 

Britain’s conservative party is in alliance with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). Members of DUP consider this deal as a betrayal by the conservative party. While many parliamentarians of the conservative party showed discontent on the no-deal Brexit, now Boris Johnson is dependent upon DUP’s support in parliament. 

Parliament will vote on the Brexit on Saturday. Experts believe that it will be a tough task for Johnson to gather the required support for his deal. If Johnson fails in getting the deal passed from the UK parliament, the UK will have to go for the 2nd Brexit referendum. The 2nd Brexit can completely halt the exit of the UK from the EU. 

Johnson’s deal has neutralized the no-deal Brexit. Economic experts have warned that a no-deal Brexit will bring economic disaster in the UK. 

Members of DUP believe that Johnson’s new deal means that Northern Ireland will be treated in a different way from the rest of the UK. The new deal will effectively move the border to the middle of the Irish sea. The DUP has clearly rejected Johnson’s exit plan. The majority of Northern Ireland believes that the Good Friday deal was good for the Irish population. Any change in the Good Friday deal will be a betrayal with Irish people. 

Currently, DUP has rejected Johnson’s plan, while the Labour party has also refused to support the bill. Furthermore, the disgruntled conservatives are also opposing this deal. Labour party believes that Johnson’s plan is worse than May’s exit plan. 

Now Johnson’s plan is dependent upon two groups. A conservative caucus in European Research Group (ERG) can help Johnson’s deal to pass and some Labour MPs who may support the deal to break the deadlock. 

Some political experts believe that it will not be easy for Johnson to get the deal passed from the parliament. Eventually, Johnson will have to work on Labour MPs. Johnson has almost 36 hours to convince MPs on his Brexit deal. 

Experts also opine that a failure in passing of this deal will pave way for no-deal Brexit. After the parliamentary rejection, Johnson can claim that he brought the deal back but parliament rejected it. This will eventually lead to a no-deal Brexit favored by British hardliners. On many occasions, Boris Johnsons have said that no-deal Brexit was not in favor of the UK. 

Some experts are also suggesting a 2nd referendum on Brexit. However, it will depend upon the party heads that they want to do with the Brexit plan. If Johnson’s deal fails in parliament there will be two options. First UK will go for a no-deal Brexit which will be a disaster for the UK’s economy. The second option is to go for another referendum on Brexit to avoid a no-deal Brexit. However, the result of the 2nd referendum may or may not be in favor of Brexit. Now the future of Brexit is completely dependent upon Saturday’s session of the British parliament. 

Experts believe that every option is better than a no-deal Brexit. So if parliament rejects Johnson’s deal, the UK will have to go for a second referendum or general elections. However, surveys show that no political party is in a position to secure a two-third majority in the parliament. Therefore passage of Johnson’s deal or 2nd Brexit referendum are only viable options for the UK. 

Related: Brexit Countdown: Supreme Court Verdict Against Parliament Suspension

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