- Thai policy rate is right for now, Mideast war is a concern

Thailand’s central bank governor stated that the current policy rate is appropriate for the economy, but adjustments can be made if necessary. He also expressed concerns about increased global risks and the Middle East conflict. The governor emphasized that the Thai economy is still expected to grow close to the forecasted 2.8% for this year, although third-quarter growth may be softer than anticipated. The central bank’s growth forecast for 2024 will be revised if there are any changes in the government’s stimulus plan. The governor highlighted the Bank of Thailand’s concerns about the impact of the Middle East conflict. He acknowledged the difficulty in evaluating this risk but maintained that the current policy rate is suitable. However, he mentioned that adjustments will be made if the situation significantly deviates from forecasts and the established framework. In a surprising move last month, the Bank of Thailand raised the key interest rate by a quarter point to 2.50%, the highest in a decade, citing expectations of improved growth and inflation next year. The rate has been raised by a total of 200 basis points since August last year to address elevated inflation. The governor also noted that the baht currency has been more volatile than its counterparts due to external factors and capital outflows from the country. The baht has depreciated about 4.4% against the dollar this year, with capital outflows totaling 308 billion baht ($8.53 billion) since the beginning of the year.