No. 3-ranked strawweight “Thug” Rose Namajunas (5-2 MMA, 3-1 UFC) will meet No. 5-ranked Karolina Kowalkiewicz (9-0 MMA, 2-0 UFC) in a potentially thrilling co-main event of UFC 201 on Saturday, July 30.
Namajunas has been on a tear lately, winning her last three fights. She submitted Angela Hill in the first round, and then dominated Paige VanZant before choking her out in the fifth round. In her last fight, she exacted revenge on Tecia Torres with a close unanimous decision win, since Torres won their first fight back in Invicta. The last time Namajunas was defeated was December of 2014, where Carla Esparza submitted her to become the first UFC strawweight champion following The Ultimate Fighter 20.
Kowalkiewicz, a Polish striker, is still relatively new to the UFC. She has made a splash so far, however, with two clear unanimous decisions over Randa Markos and Heather Clark. During her time in other MMA promotions, specifically KSW, Kowalkiewicz has amassed an undefeated professional MMA record.
Namajunas specializes in submission grappling, as evidenced by four of her five professional wins coming by way of submission. She averages about 3.5 takedowns per fight and converts about 67 of her attempts.
Kowalkiewicz has leaned on her solid striking and takedown defense thus far in her career. She has only been taken down once so far in her pair of UFC fights. When it comes to striking, she has landed over six significant strikes per minute, albeit in a small sample size.
Namajunas’s striking has improved every fight she’s been in, but it’s not polished enough yet to beat Kowalkiewicz primarily on the feet. Which means that she’ll need to drag her to the ground and either control her or submit her to win. Still, “Thug Rose” has shown better striking than Kowalkiewicz’s past two opponents, so she should be able to hang in there until she can snag some takedowns.
The question is whether Kowalkiewicz’s takedown defense will hold up, or if Namajunas will do just enough to drag her down from the clinch. Kowalkiewicz’s path to victory, meanwhile, is to stay on her feet, and not be tentative to throw. If she throws in volume, she should be able to land enough to defeat Namajunas in a decision.
This fight is super close as well, and both fighters’ paths to victory are laid out for them. It’s just a matter of which one executes her game plan better. Namajunas has been mostly improving from fight to fight, and likely has the skills necessary to get Kowalkiewicz down more than once. If not, expect Kowalkiewicz to out-point her in the stand-up.
