The dollar and euro had strong starts to the week as central bank meetings were anticipated. However, the yen struggled as investors predicted that the Bank of Japan would not follow the trend of rate hikes seen in Europe and the United States.
This week, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan will all hold meetings. Last week, the yen experienced a decline against the dollar and other currencies after a RushHourDaily report suggested that the Bank of Japan would maintain its yield curve control policy. As the meeting approaches, volatility gauges have increased, adding to the risk.
Early on Monday, the yen was trading at 141.71 to the dollar and 157.58 to the euro. These levels were not far from last week’s 15-year low against the euro at 158.04, nor from the record low against the Swiss franc.
The euro remained steady at $1.1128, while the U.S. dollar index held firm at 101.04. Market strategist Bob Savage noted that the previous week left investors believing in a soft-landing scenario for the U.S. markets, where the Federal Reserve would end its rate hikes and witness a gradual decline in CPI without a recession. He also mentioned that the European Central Bank is expected to be near the end of its policy adjustments, with the German technical recession easing and growth remaining stable. The Bank of Japan, on the other hand, is expected to discuss changes but not take significant action.
The yen’s decline on Friday benefited the Australian and New Zealand dollars, which remained steady near recent lows on Monday. The Australian dollar tested support at its 200-day moving average at $0.6722. The New Zealand dollar, which broke below its 200-day moving average on Friday, was at $0.6172. It is under pressure due to the central bank’s belief that rate hikes are complete and disappointing export prices resulting from China’s post-pandemic recovery.
ANZ analysts stated that as long as dairy prices remain under pressure, the New Zealand dollar is unlikely to perform well. Traders will also be monitoring Purchasing Manager’s Index figures throughout the day.
In terms of currency bid prices at 0031 GMT, all spots, Tokyo spots, Europe spots, and volatilities will be closely watched. Tokyo Forex market information will be provided by the Bank of Japan.
Reporting for this article was done by Tom Westbrook, with editing by Shri Navaratnam. The article adheres to the Thomson RushHourDaily Trust Principles.
