Heading into the season, there was the question whether Kenta Maeda’s best role on the Dodgers was out of the bullpen. He took a backward step from his successful rookie year, but when put into the bullpen, he was throwing a lot hard and looked extremely sharp. But he started the season off in the starting rotation, and the struggles continued even though his season numbers won’t show it.
Before his start against the Angels, he has a 3.36 ERA and 89 strikeouts in 75 innings, vastly different from the 4.75 ERA he had on May 11. But on May 17, something clicked for him; the same time it did for the Dodgers as a whole. Since his start in Miami, he has a 2.07 ERA in seven starts. Included in that was 1.2 innings against the Philadelphia Phillies, in which he got hurt. That was a momentum killer, as he was excellent the two starts prior. Take away that Phillies start, and he has a 1.69 ERA and a .99 WHIP in 37.1 innings along with 41 strikeouts, and in turn, has become a dependable staple in the rotation every fifth day.
Control has been his biggest issue, but he has been able to overcome it with his newfound ability to miss bats. Over his first two seasons, he struck out just over a batter-an-inning and about a quarter of the hitters faced. But this season, he has gotten even filthier, striking out 10.7 hitters per nine innings and 27.9% of batters faced, which is considered elite. He has cut down his usage of the sinker and cutter, instead opting for throwing his four-seamer and slider more.
A lot of his success has been predicated on excelling once he gets ahead in the count. The reason for his early season struggles was that once he fell behind in the count, teams would hit him hard. He would fall behind 1-0 and 2-0 quite frequently, and that is when hitters feasted on him. When down 1-0, opponents have a .890 OPS. When down 2-0, opponents have a 1.242 OPS. When down 2-1, they have a .958 OPS. Even though those are hitter counts, you do not typically see that much success against a pitcher.
However, he has gotten better in recent weeks at not falling behind, and once he is ahead, hitters have hit just .168 off him.
Another added element to his game that we did not see too much the last two years was his ability to go deep into games. In four of his previous six (ignoring the one he got hurt in), he has pitched into the seventh each time, collecting two outs in the seventh once, finishing seven twice, and throwing eight shutout innings another time. For a team that had to over-rely on an exhausted bullpen, going deep into games has been a godsend for the Dodgers.
Maeda has completed seven innings his last two times out, including seven shutout innings in which he allowed just four baserunners against a dangerous Chicago Cubs team; all in only 84 pitches. This after struggling in his previous matchup with the Cubbies. He has been efficient in each inning, averaging under 15 pitchers per inning in his last six full starts. You generally want to be somewhere between 12-15 pitches an inning.
The Japanese pitcher’s 2018 has turned around for the better, and he is rolling with momentum. Maybe he has finally adjusted to the MLB grind. Who knows? But what we can all agree on is you can expect the Dodgers to get a guy who will give you at least six innings and keep you in games every fifth day. He is not an ace, but if he can keep this up, he would be an excellent middle-of-the-rotation arm for the Dodgers, who have lacked consistency this season from their starters.
Featured Image via Flickr/apardavila
