The New York Yankees still have plenty of season (and postseason) to go in 2018, and that is priority number one. That doesn’t mean, however, that the front office doesn’t keep an eye towards future plans, so it is sometimes worthwhile for fans to have a little bit of an eye towards the future too.
According to my calculations, the Yankees have at least nine (9) house candidates for next year’s rotation within the organization right now.
Luis Severino
Despite recent struggles, he is the ace now and should be the ace next season. He’s in the rotation no matter what, barring an injury.
Masahiro Tanaka
Tanaka is mostly good and is under contract for next season, making him a lock for a rotation spot, likely as the No. 2 to Severino. There’s nothing else to say.
CC Sabathia
Here is where it can get interesting. CC signed a one year deal worth $10M after 2017, and he has been worth every penny. CC is mostly consistent and good. He doesn’t give you the length he once could, and he makes at least one trip to the disabled list annually, but he is obviously worth keeping around as one of the leaders in the clubhouse.
Sabathia said at one point that he would be done if the Yankees won the World Series in 2018. That no longer appears to be the case due to a combination of his effectiveness, the fun he’s having, the talent level of the group, and the trip to London the Yankees will take next year. CC has been saying that he plans to be back next year. Will it be for $10M again? Maybe. It’s hard to say how they will be handling the luxury tax situation, assuming they accomplish their goal of staying below it this season, but I say bring CC back on one year deals at a reasonable price until he wants to stop. Because of the potential log jam, we can’t say it is a foregone conclusion that the front office want him back, but he should be back.
Jordan Montgomery
When all is said and done, Monty will have missed all but six starts in 2018 due to Tommy John surgery. He’ll likely miss the first half of the season or so, so maybe accounting for him on this list is not a worthwhile thought exercise, but I fully expect him to have a rotation spot when he returns. Do not forget that he was the best rookie starting pitcher in 2017 and has a combined MLB ERA of 3.84 in 35 career starts at just 25 years old.
Justus Sheffield
Sheffield is the Yankees top prospect right now. Many are clamoring for him to be called up to make his MLB debut right now, so getting a spot in the 2019 rotation feels pretty likely, if not a given. They can’t rely on Sheffield being the ace they expect him to be long-term in 2019, but he will certainly be seen next year.
Sonny Gray
Sonny Gray has been really bad as a Yankee, particularly in 2018. I’ll still argue that he was mostly good down the stretch in 2017, but it obviously has not worked out as a whole. He’s currently in the bullpen for the Yankees due to not only his performance, but the performances of newcomers JA Happ and Lance Lynn. Those guys are not under contract for next season, though, and Gray is. He should be starting somewhere and it very well could be in the Bronx. A few teams inquired about Gray at the deadline, hoping to find the way to fix him themselves, but the Yankees didn’t pull the trigger on anything. Could the reinvestigate that in the offseason? I wouldn’t rule it out. At this point, Sonny is, at best, the sixth best option for a rotation spot, according to my speculation.
Chance Adams
Adams made his MLB debut in Boston earlier this month. He did a nice job! He should probably make the full time jump to the MLB level next year. I’m not sure how good Chance will be or in what role. There seem to be a very wide range of opinions on him from both the media and what we’ve heard from Yankees personnel. Adams, 24, could be a really nice piece in the back of the rotation long-term, or perhaps he’s destined for the bullpen. There’s no problem with either role, but he should get to try being a starter in the big leagues before being shifted to the pen. Based on the fact that he seems to be involved in every trade rumor we’ve heard for a year, I think the Yankees would be more than content in moving him in the right deal, and he’s not a lock to be in the Bronx next year.
Jonathan Loaisiga
The Yankees saved Loaisiga from the Rule 5 Draft a year ago, and he came up to make a few solid starts for them this year. Injuries are always a concern with him, but the talent is there, and he has to be in the mix to be a part of the pitching staff in 2019.
Domingo German/Luis Cessa
I will include both of these guys in the same discussion because they’re essentially the same player. The Yankees seem to love these guys, particularly Cessa. They both have “the stuff” and have had difficulty with command. Where have we heard this story before? I don’t want to be relying on either of them for a championship pursuit. Maybe one of them can be a multi-inning slop guy out of the bullpen next year, but I would hold my breath on even that. I think they’re in position to be 40-man roster purge guys. They’ve both started this year, though, and are under contract for next year, so they have to be mentioned.
What does this mean?
Severino, Tanaka, Sabathia, Montgomery, and Sheffield seem to be the five guys that are guaranteed (or as close to it as anyone) shots at the rotation. Sonny Gray and Chance Adams are the next serious contenders that they have in place right now to fill in while Montgomery is out or if Sheffield isn’t good yet, but they, themselves have question marks aplenty.
Beyond Severino and Tanaka, none of these guys are the type that could not be displaced by bringing in another ace-type starter. If the Yankees went and signed someone or made a big trade, it’s easy to see how Montgomery or Adams would be included in a deal. Ditto German and Cessa, if anyone wants them.
Do they bring back Happ or Lynn? Maybe. I would doubt it, but perhaps they can bring one of the vets back on a one year contract to fill in the gaps. They’ve both been so good since coming over ahead of the trade deadline, but they brought in expiring deals for a reason, and the reason is that they already have a lot of in-house options.
The Yankees have a lot of options readily available as is for 2019, but if they are in a position to bring in a bonafide top-of-the-rotation arm, then they will still pursue it.
Featured Image via Flickr/Keith Allison
