Unlike the National League’s MVP race, the NL’s Cy Young race is like the American League’s MVP race, where there is a top-tier of players having an excellent season who have separated themselves from the pack. There are three guys, in particular, who are having outstanding seasons, and guys that will, or definitely should finish in the top-3 or Cy Young voting.
These guys are Jacob deGrom of the New York Mets, Max Scherzer of the Washington Nationals, and Aaron Nola of the Philadephia Phillies, Who you don’t see here, which may come as a surprise to many, is a single left-hander, but in particular Clayton Kershaw.
Injuries have hampered him over the last three season, but mainly this year, where his velocity is down, and he is having his worst season in years. He was always the favorite to win the award, and if it weren’t for his back, he’d have five Cy Young awards instead of three, but his reign as ‘Baseball’s Best Pitcher” appears to be over.
Instead, we have new blood, where each start will have us remake our decision, just like back in 2015 with Clayton Kershaw, Jake Arrieta, and Zack Greinke. Here is an overview of their seasons and Cy Young candidacy:
Jacob deGrom
The Mets’ ace might be the unluckiest pitcher ever, or at least he’s having the most unlucky season by a starting pitcher ever. The 30-year-old is going to challenge voters because of his win totals, or lack thereof. Cy Young voters have historically been swayed by the pitcher’s win-loss record, and that has long been the perception of how to judge a starting pitcher.
But the win-loss record is the most overrated stat in baseball, even more so than RBI and Saves, and deGrom may be the poster child for why. He has thrown 146.1 innings (8.1 off lead) and compiled a .970 WHIP (second), 6.7 WAR (second) and 173 strikeouts (second). Also, deGrom leads all of baseball with a 1.85 ERA, which is the best in all of baseball and leads the NL by about half-a-run. He also tops the National League with a 2.29 FIP, 204 and ERA+.
All just for a 5-7 record, but it’s hard not see why how because he is backed by the second-worst offense in the game. He’s pitched 63 innings where he has gotten between 0-2 runs of support, and he has a 2.00 ERA in those frames. But he’s 0-6. The righty has a 2.88 ERA in losses and a 1.44 ERA in no-decisions, and in those no-decisions, the Mets are 3-7.
Furthermore, in 33 innings against the Braves this season spanning five starts, he’s allowed just four earned runs (1.09 ERA), and the Braves have still won them all. These are all the most Mets things anyone can come up with.
DeGrom has held opponents to three runs or less in 19 straight starts, the second-longest streak in Mets history. He’s done an excellent job of keeping the ball in the park (tied for the best with a .49 HR/9) and has allowed just a .558 OPS against him. Hitters have a .284 BABIP against him, which is worse than his two biggest competitors for the Cy Young, which helps his case, showing he’s been unluckier than them. This is because Mets grade out as the second-worst defensive team in baseball.
And when these guys, that shouldn’t be on, get on base, deGrom has the highest strand rate of 83.2%, no to mention, his wOBA of .245 is top 2% the in the league, as is .330 xSLG.
Max Scherzer
It’s like the right-hander gets better with age. Scherzer has won last the two NL CY Young awards, but he has gotten better as a 33-year-old. He leads the league with 154.2 innings, a .905 WHIP, 210 strikeouts, and 6.8 WAR. And the veteran is on pace to best career-bests in ERA (2.33), FIP (2.68), strikeouts-per-nine (12.2), and strikeout percentage (34.6%). And at the same time, he is just off career-bests in WHIP and hit-per-nine.
Hitters have just a.580 OPS against the Nat, and he has allowed the lowest batting average from a starting pitcher (1.82). In addition, Scherzer is almost as good as stranding runners like deGrom and has a .252 wOBA.
The 33-year old is in position to join rarified air of winnings the Cy Young three times in a row, which would make him the third person to do it all-time, and make him a four-time winner. Granted, two of his wins were gifted to him, in a sense, because of Clayton Kershaw’s back. But that doesn’t take away from the fact that he’s one of the three best pitchers in the game.
But what might help him the most is his MLB-leading 15 wins. Even though it would be ridiculous, this stat will only elevate his candidacy in the eyes of voters.
Aaron Nola
The 25-year-old from Philly is having a breakout season that has thrown him legitimately into the Cy Young conversation. He’s the ace of the 7th-best rotation (at least according to ERA) in the MLB, and Nola may be the best young pitcher in the game.
Nola’s 148 innings is the second-most innings in the Nation League, just behind Scherzer. His 2.37 ERA, 2.79 FIP, and .99 WHIP are all third, while his opponents batting average of .199 is second, only to Scherzer.
He’s tied with deGrom for a league-best .49 HR/9 and second with a 6.7 WAR. His .550 OPS against is better than both Scherzer and deGrom, as are his .242 wOBA, .323 XSLG, which are both at, or just right under, the top of the league.
Nola isn’t flashy or a strikeout pitcher, which may hurt him. The youngster relies on generating soft contact and keeping the ball on the ground, which he’s done well in 2018. He has GB rate 50.1%, the fourth-best best soft-contact percentage, and lowest hard-hit contact rate, according to FanGraphs.
Not to mention, like Scherzer, his candidacy will be elevated because of a 12-3 record that works in his favor. He was the lone All-Star from a first-place Phillies team and has been their best player all season long. This all contributes to a Cy Young resume for a guy who will remain in the discussion for years to come.
Featured Image via Flickr/Keith Allison
