The Houston Rockets were the NBA’s best chance at stopping the juggernaut known as the Golden State Warriors. They came just one game away from playing in the 2018 NBA Finals against the Cleveland Cavaliers. A series that they more-than-likely would have been favored in and most likely would have won. However, Chris Paul’s hamstring injury blindsided them and prevented them from winning. He was such a huge part of their success and were up 3-2 with the point guard.
And last season may have been the Rockets’ best opportunity to win it all. Their window may have been last year up until Paul hurt his hamstring and it may be close to closing, with just a few inches remaining open. Never doubt a team led by the two-headed monster of James Harden and Chris Paul. But that is the most optimistic view someone can have.
First off, the Rockers lost their free agents Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute. While that may not sound like much because they aren’t stars, they were invaluable to the team last year. The duo did a lot of the dirty work that went unnoticed. They were good perimeter defenders and could adequately space the floor (Ariza 39.4% on catch-and-shoot 3s and Luc Mbha Moute shot 36.4% on all threes).
They were invaluable 3&D players that brought much-needed toughness to the team. The only person they have left like that is PJ Tucker, but one is not the same as three. Their absences will be felt. As crazy as it may sound, the Rockets would not have taken the series against Golden State to seven games. The box score will not always show their contribution, but the Rockets themselves will tell you their importance, and with their departures, the team loses depth as well.
They had to save money so they could re-sign Chris Paul, which they did, by handing him a four-year $160 million deal. If they wanted to stay competitive, they had no choice, but it’s a contract that will not play out too well.
CP3 has had his fair share of injury problems, especially with the hamstrings, and at 33 years of age and only getting older, durability will just become harder to achieve, and the production decline will stand out more because he’s a perimeter player. Paying $40 million a year to a 33-year-old for four years just isn’t good business.
And while he declines, it’s hard to see James Harden getting any better. He’s 29 years old, an age in basketball where we know how a player already is. He played as well as he could have in 2018, winning the MVP, and not being as bad on defense. But this isn’t baseball where some guys blossom late and get better as they get further from the 30 mark.
Harden is in his physical prime, and you don’t get better in basketball when you are nearing 30 and move away from it. It’s just not realistic. And playing with Ariza and Mbah a Moute helped him because it opened up the floor. The Rockets don’t have the same amount of floor-spacers.
And with the money leftover, the Rockets signed a 34-year-old Carmelo Anthony, who is way past his prime but does not realize that. His ego still leads him to believe that he is the same guy from five years ago when in reality, he should not be playing more than 20 minutes per night. The move will pay off if he is utilized correctly, and he embraces that, and it’s hard to see both happening. And Clint Capela isn’t even on the roster right now.
In short, as it stands, the Houston Rockets are a worse team than they were last year. But even if they bring back Capela, they will not be as good as previous season They are a veteran team that is a year older, has lost key pieces, and replaced them with a guy who could not fit in with two other All-Stars last year.
The Rockets are old and have a terrible cap situation for the next handful of years. According to Spotrac, the payroll is expected to be $120,394,785 next year ($101 million salary cap). The year after, $127,267,069 million after (almost over $20 million over the cap). And for the 2020-2021 season, they have over just over $91 million in guaranteed contracts.
And that is without Clint Capela, who was offered a 5-year $85 million deal but did not accept. The ‘Rockets are very hopeful about re-signing Clint Capela,’ but their offer may have to increase. The center is looking for a four-year $100 million deal, which is the price tag set by Steven Adams for a big-bodied center who does all the dirty work, is an excellent defensive presence, but without an offensive game.
This situation is tricky because you do not want to lose him, but at the same time, you don’t want to overpay for a limited player. It’s a lose-lose situation unless the Rockets can get him for cheap, which is not going to happen.
The Rockets are not going to be the 60+-win team they were from a year ago. 55 wins may be tough as well. They will be a formidable opponent for anyone, but starting this year and in the ensuing years, their title window will get narrower and narrower because they will be old with no flexibility of acquiring good young talent.
